Although apparently unrelated, this entire mess began with Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. Right from the beginning Russia has formally opposed such a move.

However, the truth is that Russia is not an ally that Serbia can rely on. And the truth is that Serbia was just an excuse for Russia to pursue its own goals. Just like in 1914. And just like back then, Russia declared its allegiance to Serbia when it suited its interests and then followed its own individualist self centered path once it no longer suited Russia's interests. Similar complaints can be found from the Cubans and many others who were dumb enough to trust the Moscow leaders.

What has the role of the press been so far?

It was outrageous to see the mainstream media referring to the Russian invasion of Georgia as “peace-keepers”. It almost looked like they were all awaiting for the White House go ahead to start calling the invasion what it really was.

And that day finally came when Rice gave a press conference shortly before departing to France where she was to meet Sarkozy. But this was already after an early agreement brokered by the French with the Russians and Georgians.

Only then were visible some difference between the coverage by the Russian press and the western mainstream press. And although this self censorship is to be expected in dictatorships such as Russia and Belarus, it certainly was a new and troubling development for the western media.

In that same news conference there was yet another display of where the western meadia is heading when a Greek journalist inquired Rice about some irrelevant issue regarding the Republic of Macedonia but referring to the Macedonians as “Skopjans”. Many people may not be aware of it but this is a racial slur for Macedonians and that is completely unacceptable on independent journalism, where you are expected to report the news, not make the news.

Russia's argument

Russia's explanation for invading Georgia is as simple as it is flawed. Like mentioned above, Russia used Serbia for its own purposes. And their argument now is that if Kosovo can be independent, South Ossetia and Abkhazia can be independent too.

The first flaw however, is that while Kosovo is an independent country, these Russian sponsored break away Georgian regions are getting the backing of Russia so they can be incorporated into the Russian Federation. And this is even more outstanding when we go back to some archive news from last February, when several Russian officials clearly stated to Russian and western media outlets that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence was not going to cause them to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

But I have to admit it is a complicated situation and the west is now finding itself on a tight spot because of Kosovo and that is rightfully undermining any moral authority they might otherwise have.

The most ambiguous positions came from the three former Soviet Baltic states and Poland. These four countries were quick to recognize Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence and that quickness was only beat by their promptness to cry foul over “Russia's disrespect for Georgia's territorial integrity”.

What Serbia's reaction should be

Serbia and Serbs must realize first of all that they were used by the Russians. They also must acknowledge that Kosovo can not be compared to South Ossetia or Abkhazia simply because none of these two Georgian break away regions are the cradle of Georgia's nationality. And finally they can't be afraid to say what they believe in. And that is that the Georgian borders are as inviolable as Serbia's and make it clear that they don't align with the “you screw us, we screw you” mentality.

The US response

The USA can deny it as much as they like, but that won't change the fact that the rushed signing of the missile defense deal with Poland was a direct response to Russia's actions in Georgia.

That won't change the fact that these 10 missiles only have defensive purposes and don't pose a threat to Russia or anyone in the region. The only reason why the deal was signed now was because it was known that it would upset the Russians, even if they have no reason to feel threatened by it.

The Russian reaction

The way Russia decided to react only shows that the Cold War didn't taught us anything at all. The Soviet Union collapsed mostly due to the astronomical costs of the arms race that became unsustainable. Looks like we are now committed to the collapse of the Russian Federation as well. And although that may not be such a bad idea, there are certainly better ways to achieve that goal.

Further western action to prevent Russia's implosion

One of Russia's threats was to get nuclear arms in its Baltic fleet and militarize the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

It happens that the Kaliningraders already have their eyes on the EU for quite some time. Since the EU accession of Lithuania and Poland (among others), Kaliningrad became isolated from the rest of Russia and there's been talks ever since about creating a corridor to link Kaliningrad to the Russian mainland.

The only thing that could cause Russia to re-evaluate its position not only on Georgia but on the whole former Soviet sphere and Syria and Iran, is the threat of a Kaliningrad blockade.

The isolation of Kaliningrad from the Russian mainland alone would give more weight to the pro-independence movement there and Moscow is well aware that any secession action within its borders at a time they are backing secession in other countries, could well mean the premature break up of the Russian Federation.

And this becomes even more credible if it begins in a region like Kaliningrad. A region where more people have visited Berlin than they have visited Moscow. Where the majority of the population is composed of ethnic Russians as well and where the younger generations see themselves more as being Europeans than as being Russians. And with a self sustainable local economy that could provide for a smooth transition towards independence.

So you can think of Kaliningrad as Russia's crown jewels. Put some pressure on Kaliningrad and the Russian bear will be tamed.