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Ralitsa Zaitseva
Ralitsa Zaitseva
Eurozone's third strike
Translations available in: English (original) | French | Swedish | Arabic

For the record with the exception of Ireland, the need for IMF interventions is not directly related to the global finantial crisis. The need for the EU bailouts is a consequence of the Euro accession of countries that should not be a part of it in the first place.

As a consequence of joining the Euro there was a subsequent interest rate drop in those countries, causing the people to feel a false sense of wealth. Thus leading them to increase spending and as a consequence, their debt. Though sure enough, the global finatial crisis accelerated and worsened the problem and precipitated the IMF intervention.

Also worth noting is that the latest IMF rescue may lead some to think that the Portuguese situation is not as serious as that of Greece or even Ireland. This is false and the only reasons why the IMF is being more lenient now is precisely because Greece is failing once again and is now two for two, and Portugal preemptively enacted some of the policies that would otherwise be imposed by the IMF anyway.

Regardless, Portugal is as much a budgetary basket-case as Greece is, and they even share fundamental common flaws that are hindering their growth for decades. It starts with a poor public finance track record that oversteps well beyond what one might consider creative accounting. And although I have no data leading me to agree that there is a case for mismanagement, I'm not as certain that there isn't a case for fraud in both these countries, as I have mentioned in the past (http://twitter.com/RalitsaZaitseva/status/1382611121344512) and which contributed greatly to the eventuality of the IMF assistence in the Portuguese case, due to the most complete lack of trust from the markets. And this, like the Greek case proves as well, will not be going away just because the IMF came for the rescue.

At this point I can't really be bothered to read the entire text of the latest IMF deal. But no matter which Eurozone country is in trouble, I have already mentioned the broad solution (http://ralitsa.tigblog.org/post/2981327). And so, the degree of success of any of these countries in dealing with their own crisis with or without the IMF, will depend on how close they get to those fundamental measures that are required to address the overall problem.

Then it would also be desirable to rethink the role of trade unions in the 21st century context of globalized markets, transnational corporations and their contrast with local or at best national governments. But that may well be too much to ask from most Euro-Mediterranian countries.

 


May 4, 2011 | 8:40 PM Comments  0 comments

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